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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Ryunosuke Tsukue (Thu 23 Aug 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 14-12,9-11,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 37,940, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 23,155, level confidence: 57%.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 24% better than Ryunosuke Tsukue in this match.

As Abdulla Al-Tamimi has played below his allowed range at 30,761, his level reduction is 7.2% before damping. On the assumption that Abdulla Al-Tamimi would normally have been playing at level 35,376 (based on typical behaviour), Ryunosuke Tsukue played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 8.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to -4.6% and Ryunosuke Tsukue changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes -1.5% and for Ryunosuke Tsukue becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Asian Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 83%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 72%, Ryunosuke Tsukue: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 37,379, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ryunosuke Tsukue: 23,798, level confidence: 66%.