Jack Turney v Elliott Morris Devred (Sat 11 Aug 2018)
Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 5-11,6-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Jack Turney:
11,027, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Elliott Morris Devred:
15,715, level confidence: 57%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing
43% better than Jack Turney.
Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played
83% better than Jack Turney in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of
17,824 and Jack Turney at a level of
9,722. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +11% and Jack Turney changes to -10.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +3.1% and for Jack Turney becomes -3.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Mote Adult Graded 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 75%, Jack Turney: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 66%, Jack Turney: 68%.
Final level for Jack Turney:
10,681, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred:
16,206, level confidence: 66%.