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Jack Turney v Elliott Morris Devred (Sat 11 Aug 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 5-11,6-11,7-11.

Starting level for Jack Turney: 11,027, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,715, level confidence: 57%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Jack Turney.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 83% better than Jack Turney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of 17,824 and Jack Turney at a level of 9,722. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +11% and Jack Turney changes to -10.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +3.1% and for Jack Turney becomes -3.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Mote Adult Graded 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 75%, Jack Turney: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 66%, Jack Turney: 68%.

Final level for Jack Turney: 10,681, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 16,206, level confidence: 66%.