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Tom Richards v Ondrej Uherka (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 12-10,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,785, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,487, level confidence: 65%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 135% better than Ondrej Uherka.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 46% better than Ondrej Uherka in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,815 and 38,785 without affecting his level.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 25,412, his level reduction is 5.5% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 32,249 (based on typical behaviour), Ondrej Uherka played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 10% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -3.6% and Ondrej Uherka changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -1.3% and for Ondrej Uherka becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 68%, Ondrej Uherka: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 53%, Ondrej Uherka: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 38,240, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka: 16,828, level confidence: 64%.