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Tom Richards v Joe Magor (Sat 04 Aug 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-3,11-3,12-10.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,881, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Joe Magor: 7,118, level confidence: 51%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 446% better than Joe Magor.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 113% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 113% better than Joe Magor in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom Richards was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,864 and 38,881 without affecting his level.

In this case, Tom Richards played at level 18,024 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 21,477 (based on typical behaviour), Joe Magor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 19%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to 0% and Joe Magor changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes 0% and for Joe Magor becomes +2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Thanet Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 73%, Joe Magor: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 46%, Joe Magor: 45%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 38,823, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Joe Magor: 7,311, level confidence: 45%.