Arturo Salazar v Lewis Walters (Wed 25 Jul 2018)
Match won by Lewis Walters. Result: 12-14,2-11,10-12.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
36,015, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Lewis Walters:
17,632, level confidence: 51%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing
104% better than Lewis Walters.
Lewis Walters won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Walters played
54% better than Arturo Salazar in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Walters actually played at a level of
31,317 and Arturo Salazar at a level of
20,277. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 78% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 49% and 49% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Walters changes to +49% and Arturo Salazar changes to -33%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Walters becomes +10.1% and for Arturo Salazar becomes -6.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Central America Caribbean Team Games Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lewis Walters is limited to +6.7% and Arturo Salazar is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Walters: 72%, Arturo Salazar: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Walters: 40%, Arturo Salazar: 46%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
34,300, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Lewis Walters:
18,821, level confidence: 40%.