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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Joel Makin (Fri 20 Jul 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 8-11,11-9,11-13,11-7,11-8.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 34,971, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 43,848, level confidence: 63%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 10% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 40,992 and Joel Makin at a level of 37,407. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +15% and Joel Makin changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +3.3% and for Joel Makin becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 81%, Joel Makin: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 69%, Joel Makin: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 36,086, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 42,475, level confidence: 68%.