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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Mohammad Syafiq Kamal (Thu 19 Jul 2018)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 34,424, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 23,236, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 83% better than Mohammad Syafiq Kamal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 38,294 and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal at a level of 20,888. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 9.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +9.1% and Mohammad Syafiq Kamal changes to -5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +2.3% and for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 74%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 66%, Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 35,001, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Mohammad Syafiq Kamal: 22,923, level confidence: 85%.