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Mahesh Mangaonkar v Chris Simpson (Thu 19 Jul 2018)

Match won by Mahesh Mangaonkar. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-6,7-11,11-6.

Starting level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 30,934, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,853, level confidence: 55%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Mahesh Mangaonkar.

Mahesh Mangaonkar won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mahesh Mangaonkar played 11% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mahesh Mangaonkar actually played at a level of 35,598 and Chris Simpson at a level of 32,025. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar changes to +13% and Chris Simpson changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mahesh Mangaonkar becomes +3.1% and for Chris Simpson becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 76%, Chris Simpson: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mahesh Mangaonkar: 66%, Chris Simpson: 65%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mahesh Mangaonkar: 31,866, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 35,774, level confidence: 65%.