SquashLevels calculations
Arturo Salazar v Sunil Seth (Thu 19 Jul 2018)
Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-5.
Starting level for
Arturo Salazar:
36,852, level confidence: 43%.
Starting level for
Sunil Seth:
10,676, level confidence: 53%.
Arturo Salazar to win as he is currently playing
245% better than Sunil Seth.
Arturo Salazar won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played
154% better than Sunil Seth in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Arturo Salazar was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,486 and 36,852 without affecting his level.
In this case, Arturo Salazar played at level 27,101 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Sunil Seth is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 65%, Sunil Seth: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 56%, Sunil Seth: 63%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar:
36,852, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Sunil Seth:
10,676, level confidence: 63%.