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Eain Yow Ng v Puvendren Subramaniam (Tue 03 Jul 2018)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-4,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 29,948, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Puvendren Subramaniam: 5,885, level confidence: 16%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 409% better than Puvendren Subramaniam.

Eain Yow Ng won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 120% better than Puvendren Subramaniam in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Eain Yow Ng was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,809 and 29,948 without affecting his level.

In this case, Eain Yow Ng played at level 14,896 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 17,139 (based on typical behaviour), Puvendren Subramaniam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to 0% and Puvendren Subramaniam changes to +6.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes 0% and for Puvendren Subramaniam becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Malaysian Nationals' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 70%, Puvendren Subramaniam: 41%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 46%, Puvendren Subramaniam: 27%.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 29,948, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Puvendren Subramaniam: 6,040, level confidence: 27%.