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Marco Perna v Josh Davies (Fri 22 Jun 2018)

Match won by Marco Perna. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Marco Perna: 1,756, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Josh Davies: 968, level confidence: 55%.
Marco Perna to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Josh Davies.

Marco Perna won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marco Perna played 74% better than Josh Davies in this match.

In this case, Marco Perna played at level 1,681 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Josh Davies is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marco Perna: 84%, Josh Davies: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marco Perna: 82%, Josh Davies: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marco Perna: 1,753, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Josh Davies: 967, level confidence: 73%.