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Josh Davies v Chris Baker (Fri 22 Jun 2018)

Match won by Josh Davies. Result: 9-11,3-11,12-10,14-12,11-8.

Starting level for Josh Davies: 881, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Chris Baker: 1,228, level confidence: 55%.
Chris Baker to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Josh Davies.

Josh Davies won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Davies played 6% better than Chris Baker in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Davies actually played at a level of 1,071 and Chris Baker at a level of 1,010. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Davies changes to +18% and Chris Baker changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Davies becomes +10.2% and for Chris Baker becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Llantrisant Open 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Davies: 67%, Chris Baker: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Davies: 55%, Chris Baker: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Josh Davies: 968, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Chris Baker: 1,137, level confidence: 61%.