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Diego Elias v Juan Camilo Vargas (Mon 04 Jun 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 43,192, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 21,250, level confidence: 67%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Juan Camilo Vargas.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 74% better than Juan Camilo Vargas in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Elias was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 32,827 and 43,192 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Elias played at level 37,279 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 37,654 (based on typical behaviour), Juan Camilo Vargas played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to 0% and Juan Camilo Vargas changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes 0% and for Juan Camilo Vargas becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 77%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 71%, Juan Camilo Vargas: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 43,195, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Juan Camilo Vargas: 21,512, level confidence: 76%.