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Diego Elias v Federico Cioffi (Sat 02 Jun 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 44,072, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Federico Cioffi: 10,705, level confidence: 61%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 312% better than Federico Cioffi.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 74% better than Federico Cioffi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Elias was taking it easy by anything up to 35%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,391 and 44,072 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Elias played at level 23,007 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 28,470 (based on typical behaviour), Federico Cioffi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to 0% and Federico Cioffi changes to +9.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes 0% and for Federico Cioffi becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 72%, Federico Cioffi: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 47%, Federico Cioffi: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 44,006, level confidence: 47%.
Final level for Federico Cioffi: 11,010, level confidence: 51%.