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Diego Elias v Ronald Palomino (Fri 01 Jun 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 44,138, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Ronald Palomino: 11,997, level confidence: 51%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 268% better than Ronald Palomino.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 74% better than Ronald Palomino in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Diego Elias was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 20,767 and 44,138 without affecting his level.

In this case, Diego Elias played at level 25,117 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Diego Elias would normally have been playing at level 30,276 (based on typical behaviour), Ronald Palomino played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to 0% and Ronald Palomino changes to +10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes 0% and for Ronald Palomino becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior South American Games' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 77%, Ronald Palomino: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 53%, Ronald Palomino: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 44,072, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Ronald Palomino: 12,351, level confidence: 49%.