Peter Creed v Adrian Waller (Fri 25 May 2018)
Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 3-11,6-11,11-7,11-2,13-11.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
28,531, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
34,623, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Peter Creed.
Peter Creed won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played
9% better than Adrian Waller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of
32,767 and Adrian Waller at a level of
30,147. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +13% and Adrian Waller changes to -13%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +3.2% and for Adrian Waller becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 84%, Adrian Waller: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 73%, Adrian Waller: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Peter Creed:
29,435, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
33,662, level confidence: 75%.