Adrian Waller v Ramit Tandon (Thu 24 May 2018)
Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-6,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Adrian Waller:
33,534, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ramit Tandon:
33,913, level confidence: 56%.
Ramit Tandon to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Adrian Waller.
Adrian Waller won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played
43% better than Ramit Tandon in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of
40,366 and Ramit Tandon at a level of
28,173. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +14% and Ramit Tandon changes to -20%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +3.3% and for Ramit Tandon becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 89%, Ramit Tandon: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 74%, Ramit Tandon: 62%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Adrian Waller:
34,510, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Ramit Tandon:
32,644, level confidence: 62%.