SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Arturo Salazar v Mohamed Abouelghar (Thu 24 May 2018)

Match won by Arturo Salazar. Result: 11-5,11-6,3-11,11-9.

Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 36,799, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 46,700, level confidence: 65%.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Arturo Salazar.

Arturo Salazar won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arturo Salazar played 22% better than Mohamed Abouelghar in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arturo Salazar actually played at a level of 45,802 and Mohamed Abouelghar at a level of 37,520. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar changes to +21% and Mohamed Abouelghar changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arturo Salazar becomes +4.3% and for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arturo Salazar: 82%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arturo Salazar: 66%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Arturo Salazar: 38,280, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar: 44,840, level confidence: 65%.