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Diego Elias v Eain Yow Ng (Thu 24 May 2018)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 41,339, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,614, level confidence: 60%.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 136% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 54,618 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 23,171. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +21% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +4.3% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Eain Yow Ng is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 88%, Eain Yow Ng: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 67%, Eain Yow Ng: 58%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 42,801, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 29,948, level confidence: 58%.