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Eain Yow Ng v Campbell Grayson (Wed 23 May 2018)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 7-11,11-5,11-4,11-6.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 29,333, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 35,384, level confidence: 67%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Eain Yow Ng won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 54% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 35% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eain Yow Ng actually played at a level of 37,366 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 27,777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to +25% and Campbell Grayson changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes +5.2% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Internacional Sporta Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 76%, Campbell Grayson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 60%, Campbell Grayson: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,763, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 34,009, level confidence: 64%.