Jaymie Haycocks v Bradley Masters (Mon 21 May 2018)
Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-5,6-11,11-7,11-2.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
21,180, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Bradley Masters:
13,410, level confidence: 57%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Bradley Masters.
Jaymie Haycocks won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played
35% better than Bradley Masters in this match.
As Jaymie Haycocks has played below his allowed range at 18,438, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Jaymie Haycocks would normally have been playing at level 19,926 (based on typical behaviour), Bradley Masters played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.3% and 3.8% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to -1.1% and Bradley Masters changes to +3.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -0.5% and for Bradley Masters becomes +1.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 81%, Bradley Masters: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 75%, Bradley Masters: 70%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
21,077, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Bradley Masters:
13,623, level confidence: 70%.