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Mick Biggs v Matthew Crowley (Sat 19 May 2018)

Match won by Mick Biggs. Result: 11-5,14-16,13-11,11-2.

Starting level for Mick Biggs: 8,269, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,509, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mick Biggs to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Matthew Crowley.

Mick Biggs won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mick Biggs played 31% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

As Mick Biggs has played below his allowed range at 7,360, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mick Biggs would normally have been playing at level 7,869 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Crowley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mick Biggs changes to -1.3% and Matthew Crowley changes to +3.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mick Biggs becomes -0.7% and for Matthew Crowley becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mick Biggs: 93%, Matthew Crowley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mick Biggs: 87%, Matthew Crowley: 84%.

Final level for Mick Biggs: 8,213, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,611, level confidence: 84%.