Mick Biggs v Matthew Crowley (Sat 19 May 2018)
Match won by Mick Biggs. Result: 11-5,14-16,13-11,11-2.
Starting level for
Mick Biggs:
8,269, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Matthew Crowley:
5,509, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Mick Biggs to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Matthew Crowley.
Mick Biggs won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mick Biggs played
31% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.
As Mick Biggs has played below his allowed range at 7,360, his level reduction is 1.7% before damping. On the assumption that Mick Biggs would normally have been playing at level 7,869 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Crowley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.3%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.4% and 3.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mick Biggs changes to -1.3% and Matthew Crowley changes to +3.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mick Biggs becomes -0.7% and for Matthew Crowley becomes +1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mick Biggs: 93%, Matthew Crowley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mick Biggs: 87%, Matthew Crowley: 84%.
Final level for Mick Biggs:
8,213, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley:
5,611, level confidence: 84%.