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Stuart Ayton v Matthew Crowley (Fri 18 May 2018)

Match won by Stuart Ayton. Result: 11-9,11-6,6-11,11-3.

Starting level for Stuart Ayton: 7,437, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Matthew Crowley: 5,468, level confidence: 70%.
Stuart Ayton to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Matthew Crowley.

Stuart Ayton won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Ayton played 28% better than Matthew Crowley in this match.

In this case, Stuart Ayton played at level 7,110 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Stuart Ayton would normally have been playing at level 7,215 (based on typical behaviour), Matthew Crowley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Ayton changes to 0% and Matthew Crowley changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Ayton becomes 0% and for Matthew Crowley becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Home Internationals 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Ayton: 86%, Matthew Crowley: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Ayton: 84%, Matthew Crowley: 81%.

Final level for Stuart Ayton: 7,437, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Matthew Crowley: 5,508, level confidence: 81%.