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Rory Stewart v Jaymie Haycocks (Thu 17 May 2018)

Match won by Rory Stewart. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Rory Stewart: 20,144, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,739, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Rory Stewart.

Rory Stewart won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rory Stewart played 74% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rory Stewart actually played at a level of 27,579 and Jaymie Haycocks at a level of 15,879. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rory Stewart changes to +35% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rory Stewart becomes +7.5% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes -5.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Stortford Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rory Stewart is limited to +6.5% and Jaymie Haycocks is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rory Stewart: 83%, Jaymie Haycocks: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rory Stewart: 61%, Jaymie Haycocks: 67%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rory Stewart: 21,444, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,180, level confidence: 67%.