Jaymie Haycocks v Robert Dadds (Wed 16 May 2018)
Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
21,406, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Robert Dadds:
11,584, level confidence: 59%.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
85% better than Robert Dadds.
Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played
120% better than Robert Dadds in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of
23,357 and Robert Dadds at a level of
10,617. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.6% and 6.6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +4.5% and Robert Dadds changes to -6.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.6% and for Robert Dadds becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Stortford Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 94%, Robert Dadds: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 86%, Robert Dadds: 70%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
21,745, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Robert Dadds:
11,322, level confidence: 70%.