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Gregoire Marche v Eain Yow Ng (Tue 15 May 2018)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-6.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 39,184, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 30,506, level confidence: 58%.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Gregoire Marche won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 106% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gregoire Marche actually played at a level of 49,653 and Eain Yow Ng at a level of 24,074. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to +19% and Eain Yow Ng changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes +4% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes -4.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 84%, Eain Yow Ng: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 66%, Eain Yow Ng: 60%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 40,464, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 29,309, level confidence: 60%.