Joel Makin v Tom Richards (Tue 15 May 2018)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-9,4-11,7-11,11-5,11-5.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
42,545, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
37,835, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Tom Richards.
Joel Makin won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
9% better than Tom Richards in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
41,951 and Tom Richards at a level of
38,371. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -1.3% and Tom Richards changes to +1.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -0.5% and for Tom Richards becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 88%, Tom Richards: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 87%, Tom Richards: 85%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
42,293, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Tom Richards:
38,144, level confidence: 85%.