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George Parker v Nathan Lake (Mon 14 May 2018)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-9,11-5,6-11,9-11,11-9.

Starting level for George Parker: 31,916, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,957, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Nathan Lake to win as he is currently playing 3% better than George Parker.

George Parker won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 9% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 33,886 and Nathan Lake at a level of 31,041. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +6.1% and Nathan Lake changes to -6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +1.8% and for Nathan Lake becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 89%, Nathan Lake: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 84%, Nathan Lake: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 32,465, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,434, level confidence: 85%.