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Joel Makin v Patrick Rooney (Mon 14 May 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 42,821, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Patrick Rooney: 25,350, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Patrick Rooney.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 50% better than Patrick Rooney in this match.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 38,836 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 39,613 (based on typical behaviour), Patrick Rooney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Patrick Rooney changes to +1.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Patrick Rooney becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA British Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 83%, Patrick Rooney: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 78%, Patrick Rooney: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 42,768, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Patrick Rooney: 25,663, level confidence: 89%.