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Peter Creed v Lyell Fuller (Thu 10 May 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,398, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lyell Fuller: 25,725, level confidence: 66%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Lyell Fuller.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 83% better than Lyell Fuller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 36,597 and Lyell Fuller at a level of 19,962. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +25% and Lyell Fuller changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +5.3% and for Lyell Fuller becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lyell Fuller is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 85%, Lyell Fuller: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 66%, Lyell Fuller: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 29,689, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Lyell Fuller: 24,511, level confidence: 63%.