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Peter Creed v Vinicius Rodrigues (Wed 09 May 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-4,11-8,16-14.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,398, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Vinicius Rodrigues: 18,077, level confidence: 68%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 57% better than Vinicius Rodrigues.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 49% better than Vinicius Rodrigues in this match.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 26,948 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Vinicius Rodrigues is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 75%, Vinicius Rodrigues: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 73%, Vinicius Rodrigues: 80%.

Final level for Peter Creed: 28,398, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Vinicius Rodrigues: 18,077, level confidence: 80%.