Miles Jenkins v Elliott Morris Devred (Mon 07 May 2018)
Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 11-8,3-11,11-7,11-7.
Starting level for
Miles Jenkins:
17,369, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Elliott Morris Devred:
15,619, level confidence: 70%.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Elliott Morris Devred.
Miles Jenkins won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played
20% better than Elliott Morris Devred in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jenkins actually played at a level of
18,024 and Elliott Morris Devred at a level of
15,051. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to +3.1% and Elliott Morris Devred changes to -3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes +1.3% and for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -1.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 90%, Elliott Morris Devred: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 87%, Elliott Morris Devred: 80%.
Final level for Miles Jenkins:
17,602, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred:
15,387, level confidence: 80%.