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Miles Jenkins v Elliott Morris Devred (Mon 07 May 2018)

Match won by Miles Jenkins. Result: 11-8,3-11,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Miles Jenkins: 17,369, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,619, level confidence: 70%.
Miles Jenkins to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Elliott Morris Devred.

Miles Jenkins won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jenkins played 20% better than Elliott Morris Devred in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Miles Jenkins actually played at a level of 18,024 and Elliott Morris Devred at a level of 15,051. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins changes to +3.1% and Elliott Morris Devred changes to -3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jenkins becomes +1.3% and for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jenkins: 90%, Elliott Morris Devred: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jenkins: 87%, Elliott Morris Devred: 80%.

Final level for Miles Jenkins: 17,602, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,387, level confidence: 80%.