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Tom J Walsh v David Haley (Mon 07 May 2018)

Match won by Tom J Walsh. Result: 11-1,15-13,11-5.

Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 20,827, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Haley: 14,651, level confidence: 70%.
Tom J Walsh to win as he is currently playing 42% better than David Haley.

Tom J Walsh won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 95% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom J Walsh played 95% better than David Haley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom J Walsh actually played at a level of 24,376 and David Haley at a level of 12,518. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom J Walsh changes to +13% and David Haley changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom J Walsh becomes +3.4% and for David Haley becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Welsh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom J Walsh: 86%, David Haley: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom J Walsh: 74%, David Haley: 71%.

Final level for Tom J Walsh: 21,527, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for David Haley: 14,112, level confidence: 71%.