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Emyr Evans v Peter Creed (Thu 15 Feb 2018)

Match won by Emyr Evans. Result: 15-13,11-4.

Starting level for Emyr Evans: 24,741, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,566, level confidence: 65%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Emyr Evans.

Emyr Evans won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emyr Evans played 54% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emyr Evans actually played at a level of 31,172 and Peter Creed at a level of 20,292. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emyr Evans changes to +14% and Peter Creed changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emyr Evans becomes +3.4% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop National Championships 2018' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emyr Evans: 93%, Peter Creed: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emyr Evans: 74%, Peter Creed: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Emyr Evans: 25,481, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 24,611, level confidence: 64%.