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Ramit Tandon v Robert Downer (Thu 03 May 2018)

Match won by Ramit Tandon. Result: 11-6,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Ramit Tandon: 30,420, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Robert Downer: 16,669, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Ramit Tandon to win as he is currently playing 82% better than Robert Downer.

Ramit Tandon won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ramit Tandon played 154% better than Robert Downer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ramit Tandon actually played at a level of 35,877 and Robert Downer at a level of 14,133. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon changes to +13% and Robert Downer changes to -7.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ramit Tandon becomes +3.1% and for Robert Downer becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Abu Dhabi Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ramit Tandon: 69%, Robert Downer: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ramit Tandon: 58%, Robert Downer: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ramit Tandon: 31,364, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Robert Downer: 16,336, level confidence: 74%.