Joel Makin v Greg Lobban (Mon 30 Apr 2018)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,8-11,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
41,681, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Greg Lobban:
35,930, level confidence: 66%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Greg Lobban.
Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
38% better than Greg Lobban in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
45,439 and Greg Lobban at a level of
32,958. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +8.3% and Greg Lobban changes to -7.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +2.1% and for Greg Lobban becomes -2.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 79%, Greg Lobban: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 72%, Greg Lobban: 74%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
42,417, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Greg Lobban:
35,327, level confidence: 74%.