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Peter Creed v Alan Clyne (Mon 30 Apr 2018)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 12-10,12-10,2-11,17-15.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 27,273, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Alan Clyne: 35,470, level confidence: 59%.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Peter Creed.

Peter Creed won 75% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 15% better than Alan Clyne in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 33,295 and Alan Clyne at a level of 29,054. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +19% and Alan Clyne changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +4.3% and for Alan Clyne becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 71%, Alan Clyne: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 58%, Alan Clyne: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 28,398, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Alan Clyne: 34,306, level confidence: 63%.