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Peter Creed v Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen (Mon 30 Apr 2018)

Match won by Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen. Result: 11-7,5-11,7-11,7-11.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 28,004, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 18,334, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen.

Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen played 28% better than Peter Creed in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen actually played at a level of 25,611 and Peter Creed at a level of 20,047. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen changes to +21% and Peter Creed changes to -31%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen becomes +5% and for Peter Creed becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Creed is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 85%, Peter Creed: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 61%, Peter Creed: 50%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,115, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Rasmus M?Ller Nielsen: 19,216, level confidence: 61%.