Joel Makin v Kristian Frost Olesen (Mon 30 Apr 2018)
Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-4,11-1,11-8.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
40,271, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for
Kristian Frost Olesen:
26,763, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
50% better than Kristian Frost Olesen.
Joel Makin won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played
154% better than Kristian Frost Olesen in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of
52,306 and Kristian Frost Olesen at a level of
20,605. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +24% and Kristian Frost Olesen changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +4.8% and for Kristian Frost Olesen becomes -4.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 81%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 62%, Kristian Frost Olesen: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Joel Makin:
41,813, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Kristian Frost Olesen:
26,240, level confidence: 68%.