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Elliott Morris Devred v Thomas Laursen (Mon 30 Apr 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,694, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for Thomas Laursen: 10,987, level confidence: 48%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Thomas Laursen.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 83% better than Thomas Laursen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of 17,780 and Thomas Laursen at a level of 9,698. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +9.6% and Thomas Laursen changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +2.8% and for Thomas Laursen becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 74%, Thomas Laursen: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 65%, Thomas Laursen: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 16,109, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Thomas Laursen: 10,751, level confidence: 61%.