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Elliott Morris Devred v Jakub Solnicky (Sat 28 Apr 2018)

Match won by Elliott Morris Devred. Result: 11-7,12-10,11-2.

Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 14,671, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Jakub Solnicky: 18,682, level confidence: 70%.
Jakub Solnicky to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Elliott Morris Devred.

Elliott Morris Devred won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 79% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliott Morris Devred played 79% better than Jakub Solnicky in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliott Morris Devred actually played at a level of 22,146 and Jakub Solnicky at a level of 12,376. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 44% and 44% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred changes to +44% and Jakub Solnicky changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliott Morris Devred becomes +9.5% and for Jakub Solnicky becomes -9.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Elliott Morris Devred is limited to +7.1% and Jakub Solnicky is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliott Morris Devred: 84%, Jakub Solnicky: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliott Morris Devred: 55%, Jakub Solnicky: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,694, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Jakub Solnicky: 17,859, level confidence: 55%.