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Lucas Wirths v Elliott Morris Devred (Sat 28 Apr 2018)

Match won by Lucas Wirths. Result: 11-9,12-10,14-12.

Starting level for Lucas Wirths: 15,073, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Elliott Morris Devred: 15,288, level confidence: 65%.
Elliott Morris Devred to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Lucas Wirths.

Lucas Wirths won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Wirths played 31% better than Elliott Morris Devred in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Wirths actually played at a level of 17,382 and Elliott Morris Devred at a level of 13,257. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Wirths changes to +13% and Elliott Morris Devred changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Wirths becomes +3.6% and for Elliott Morris Devred becomes -4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior European Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Wirths: 86%, Elliott Morris Devred: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Wirths: 75%, Elliott Morris Devred: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Wirths: 15,594, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Elliott Morris Devred: 14,676, level confidence: 70%.