Declan James v David Haley (Sat 28 Apr 2018)
Match won by Declan James. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-7.
Starting level for
Declan James:
35,638, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Haley:
14,546, level confidence: 62%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing
145% better than David Haley.
Declan James won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played
106% better than David Haley in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Declan James was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,938 and 35,638 without affecting his level.
In this case, Declan James played at level 30,001 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, David Haley is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 85%, David Haley: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 78%, David Haley: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Declan James:
35,585, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for David Haley:
14,524, level confidence: 72%.