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Jaymie Haycocks v Tim Vail (Sat 28 Apr 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 9-11,7-11,12-10,11-9,11-7.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,126, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,108, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Tim Vail.

Jaymie Haycocks won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 9% better than Tim Vail in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 22,000 and Tim Vail at a level of 20,269. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +3.6% and Tim Vail changes to -4.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.4% and for Tim Vail becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 93%, Tim Vail: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 89%, Tim Vail: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,404, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 20,816, level confidence: 83%.