Owain Taylor v Jaymie Haycocks (Sat 28 Apr 2018)
Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-3,4-11,3-11,6-11.
Starting level for
Owain Taylor:
15,965, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for
Jaymie Haycocks:
21,088, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Owain Taylor.
Jaymie Haycocks won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played
33% better than Owain Taylor in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of
21,180 and Owain Taylor at a level of
15,895. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.4% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +0.3% and Owain Taylor changes to -0.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +0.1% and for Owain Taylor becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Intercounty 2017/18' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 87%, Owain Taylor: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 87%, Owain Taylor: 79%.
Final level for Owain Taylor:
15,937, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks:
21,117, level confidence: 87%.