Tom Richards v Joel Makin (Fri 27 Apr 2018)
Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,11-13,11-6,1-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Tom Richards:
35,989, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Joel Makin:
40,262, level confidence: 56%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing
12% better than Tom Richards.
Tom Richards won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played
8% better than Joel Makin in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of
39,571 and Joel Makin at a level of
36,617. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +6.8% and Joel Makin changes to -9.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +1.9% and for Joel Makin becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 88%, Joel Makin: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 80%, Joel Makin: 68%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tom Richards:
36,641, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Joel Makin:
39,378, level confidence: 68%.