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Joel Makin v Mike McCue (Wed 25 Apr 2018)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-9,11-9,11-3.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 38,236, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mike McCue: 22,052, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Mike McCue.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 56% better than Mike McCue in this match.

In this case, Joel Makin played at level 34,806 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 35,118 (based on typical behaviour), Mike McCue played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Mike McCue changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes 0% and for Mike McCue becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 86%, Mike McCue: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 82%, Mike McCue: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 38,209, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Mike McCue: 22,288, level confidence: 85%.