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Tom Richards v Jaymie Haycocks (Wed 25 Apr 2018)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,11-9,9-11,11-8.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 36,326, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 20,605, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Jaymie Haycocks.

Tom Richards won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 22% better than Jaymie Haycocks in this match.

As Tom Richards has played below his allowed range at 27,651, his level reduction is 9.8% before damping. On the assumption that Tom Richards would normally have been playing at level 33,205 (based on typical behaviour), Jaymie Haycocks played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.3% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to -7.3% and Jaymie Haycocks changes to +8.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes -2% and for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 80%, Jaymie Haycocks: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 67%, Jaymie Haycocks: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 35,526, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 21,120, level confidence: 77%.