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Jaymie Haycocks v Sam Buckley (Mon 23 Apr 2018)

Match won by Jaymie Haycocks. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Jaymie Haycocks: 19,952, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Sam Buckley: 11,515, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Jaymie Haycocks to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Sam Buckley.

Jaymie Haycocks won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaymie Haycocks played 94% better than Sam Buckley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaymie Haycocks actually played at a level of 21,118 and Sam Buckley at a level of 10,879. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 4.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks changes to +4.4% and Sam Buckley changes to -4.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaymie Haycocks becomes +1.6% and for Sam Buckley becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Irish Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaymie Haycocks: 83%, Sam Buckley: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaymie Haycocks: 79%, Sam Buckley: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaymie Haycocks: 20,270, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Sam Buckley: 11,316, level confidence: 80%.