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Raphael Kandra v Nathan Lake (Sun 22 Apr 2018)

Match won by Raphael Kandra. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-5,8-11,11-6.

Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 37,691, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Nathan Lake: 32,587, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Nathan Lake.

Raphael Kandra won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raphael Kandra played 14% better than Nathan Lake in this match.

As Raphael Kandra has played below his allowed range at 37,235, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Raphael Kandra would normally have been playing at level 37,493 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Lake played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra changes to 0% and Nathan Lake changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raphael Kandra becomes -0.1% and for Nathan Lake becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA El Gouna International Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raphael Kandra: 83%, Nathan Lake: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raphael Kandra: 83%, Nathan Lake: 89%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raphael Kandra: 37,567, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Nathan Lake: 32,734, level confidence: 89%.